Karl Rove: Obama Can’t Outsource Afghanistan – WSJ.com

Karl Rove: Obama Can’t Outsource Afghanistan – WSJ.com.

I’m sad to say both Rove and Obama are mistaken, albeit in rather different ways. If Obama rejects McChrystal’s call for a “surge” in Afghanistan, we might as well just get the hell out ASAP, with our tail between our legs. That would leave the Taliban and Al Qaeda tremendous PR victories for decades to come, and leave us looking like fair weather friends to Afghanis and Pakis, equally, since both would soon be overrun by Taliban and Al Qaeda, anyhow.

On the other hand, if we follow Rove’s advice (a.k.a what Bush did in Iraq), we run the yet much more serious problems of complete instability and corruption in Afghani governance, tribal fractures and backdoor deals between tribal leaders and the Taliban despite any concerted surge, and a much more complex military battle in the mountains in Afghanistan, and inevitably across the border in Pakistan. Theoretically, the battle is winnable, but only the highest motivation and commitment of troops, materiel and time could possibly make this last-ditch assault successful. The odds are not good, since no empire has ever conquered Afghanistan (not the Greeks, the Brits, the Russians or even Genghis Khan, among others). We risk even more in Afghanistan than we did in Iraq, which did manage to stabilize, despite itself.

My feeling is that in his gut, Obama just doesn’t have either the grasp of the gravity of our situation in Afghanistan, nor has the gut to (start or) finish the job. He’s much too distracted already, and just doesn’t have it in him to fight a war properly. McChrystal can’t fight this alone, together with help from Congress. Obama needs to keep constant watch over what’s happening. He appears unwilling or unable to do so. I see trouble, BIG trouble for us in Afghanistan.